Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Coronavirus Crisis: Facts & Predictions

A crisis often leads to a blurring of the boundary between fact and prediction. What is a prediction from one perspective is viewed as a fact from another perspective; this is what we are witnessing in case of the coronavirus crisis. There are many hysterical and terrified people who believe that between two to five million people are going to die from coronavirus infections—they claim that the high casualty figures are a fact because experts on TV are saying it, but this isn’t a fact; this is a prediction made by public figures with a history of making incorrect predictions, and there are other, more reliable, public figures, who disagree with such high casualty figures. There is no easy way of divining a future from facts—but I stand by what I have been saying for the last ten days: the toll from coronavirus will not be high enough (it will be much less than the toll from the seasonal flus which come every year) to justify the complete lockdown of the world.

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